Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by five points in the first two major national polls taken following Tuesday’s debate—in which pundits widely considered Harris the winner.
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris during the first presidential debate at National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, PA on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Photo by Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The Washington Post via Getty Images
Key Takeaways
- Harris is up 50% to 45% over Trump in a Morning Consult survey conducted Wednesday of 3,317 likely voters, her widest lead yet in the group’s presidential election surveys and a slight improvement from her four-point lead in a survey taken on the day of the debate and from her three-point lead in pre-debate surveys.
- A two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed Thursday also found Harris leading by five points, 47% to 42%, a one-point increase from her advantage in an Aug. 21-28 Reuters/Ipsos poll.
- The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 53% of voters who said they had heard at least something about the debate said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won, and the rest didn’t answer.
- Far more Democrats (91%) also said Harris won, compared to 53% of Republicans who said Trump did, according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey.
- The majority, 52%, of Reuters/Ipsos respondents familiar with the debate said Trump didn’t appear sharp, compared to 21% who said the same about Harris.
- Pundits, including former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris to have won the debate, citing her ability to rattle Trump and put him on the defensive on several occasions—bringing up his legal woes, the size of his rally crowds and his 2020 election loss, and saying U.S. military leaders view him as a “disgrace.”
Big Number
2.7. That’s how many points Harris was leading Trump by in polls on the day of the debate, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Her polling surge appeared to be tapering off, with Trump notching one of his first leads by a major pollster since early August with a New York Times/Siena survey taken Sept. 3-6 that found him up by one point, 48% to 47%.
Key Background
Tuesday’s debate—the first and only scheduled showdown between Trump and Harris and the first time the two met in person—was widely considered the most consequential night of the 2024 election. It was particularly high stakes for Harris, as voters are less familiar with her from a personal and policy perspective considering her late entrance into the race.
While she didn’t float any new policy proposals during the debate, she and Trump traded their usual barbs over the economy, the troubled U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the border and abortion. The debate came a little over two months after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump that effectively ended his presidential campaign, paving Harris’ path to securing the Democratic nomination.
Contra
ABC moderators Linsey Davis and David Muir faced criticism from Trump allies for fact-checking Trump in multiple instances, but never Harris. News outlets that fact-checked the candidates’ answers found that Trump made far more baseless or factually wrong statements—such as inflation being the worst it’s ever been—than Harris, though Harris did stretch the truth in a few cases, including by saying she made her position on fracking clear in 2020, and wasn’t corrected by moderators.
What To Watch For
Trump said Thursday he won’t debate Harris again, writing on Truth Social, that Harris “SHOULD FOCUS ON WHAT SHE SHOULD HAVE DONE DURING THE LAST ALMOST FOUR YEAR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!” Trump accused Harris of challenging him to a second debate only because she lost the first one, comparing her to a fallen UFC fighter who wants a rematch.
