Former President Donald Trump is on the cusp of adding another $1.3 billion to his social media fortune, though the valuation of his company remains downright puzzling, likely putting in doubt how much of his stake he’ll ever be able to cash in on.
Key facts
- If shares of Trump Media end Tuesday trading at above $17.50 per share, which will happen unless the stock falls by more than 50%, the company will award its namesake another 36 million shares, part of an earnout bonus outlined in a regulatory filing last Monday.
- That new tranche was worth $1.28 billion as of Monday’s closing share price of $35.50, which would grow Trump’s holdings in the company from 78.8 million shares to 114.8 million shares.
- That would swell his social media stake from $2.8 billion to $4.1 billion.
- Shares of Trump Media fell about 2% on Monday, sitting 55% below their March peak, valuing the company at a still robust $4.9 billion market capitalization.
Forbes valuation
Trump’s net worth was $4.7 billion at the end of Monday, according to our calculations based on Trump’s 79 million existing Truth Social shares at their $35.50 share price, as well as his real estate and other assets. Should his fortune rise by the $1.3 billion it’s slated to rise Tuesday afternoon —which is no certainty given Trump Media stock’s volatility in its four-week history—his fortune would rise to $6 billion, placing him on the cusp of Forbes’ rankings of the 500 richest people in the world.
Contra
As is the case with Trump Media, significant questions linger about the true value of Trump’s earnout award likely to come Tuesday. For one, you can’t just create equity out of thin air—shareholders are still divvying up the same pie of the Truth Social parent.
So, the value of Trump’s bonus is dependent on the notion that the company’s near $5 billion valuation would support a 40 million jump in the shares outstanding, or about 30% of new issues, and would not be negatively impacted by the dilution.
The stock’s 18% loss last Monday after Trump Media announced the possible offering indicates the damage may already be done, but its overall valuation is divorced from its fundamentals, which imply it’s worth somewhere around 1% of its present market capitalization.
Questions also linger about when Trump could sell, or how much he could get rid of, his shares in Trump Media due to his status as the company’s majority shareholder, which carries significant regulation for any stock sales.
This article was first published on forbes.com and all figures are in USD.
