Ahead of Succession’s highly anticipated finale on Sunday, real-life Wall Street analysts seem to be split on which scion will take over fictional mogul Logan Roy’s media empire—a sprawling conglomerate with close parallels to Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News dynasty—but a Forbes poll revealed the popular HBO show is no hit amongst the group it’s about, billionaires. (Spoilers ahead)
KEY FACTS
- The best option to lead Roy’s Waystar conglomerate is not one of the founder’s children but rather long-time lieutenant Gerri Kellman, Cowen media analyst Doug Creutz, who covers firms like Fox and Disney, tells Forbes, explaining Kellman is a “tough” veteran who “understands the business” and has “at least a little bit of a soul” compared to other Succession characters.
- He’s not alone in chiding the Roys: Peerage Capital chairman Miles Nadal thinks it’s necessary for an outsider “free of all that toxic family baggage” to take the reins of Waystar, adding that each of the Roy children, known to double cross each other before, have “amply demonstrated their respective weaknesses and their inability to lead.”
- David Bahnsen, founder of wealth advisory firm Bahnsen Group, also believes, “No one in that family not named Logan should be running that company,” adding, “All of them are filled with flaws”—though If he had to pick, he says Kendall’s “scars” and “confidence” make him the best pick to succeed his father.
- But Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said his firm’s preferred choice is Roy’s sole daughter, Siobhan (often called Shiv), who was overlooked by her father at first but has demonstrated “leadership qualities and grit,” whereas Roy’s middle son and once hand-picked successor, Kendall, “does not have what it takes… to take this media empire to the next level.”
TANGENT
Oddsmakers agree with Wedbush’s take: Fictional odds shared with Forbes by betting site DraftKings Sportsbook place Shiv as the person most likely to take over Waystar at 5:2 odds, followed by her brothers Kendall (3:1), Roman (8:1) and Connor (14:1)—and then trailing far behind, estranged husband Tom Wambsgams (20:1), ex-mother-in-law Marcia (30:1) and cousin Greg Hirsch (50:1). DraftKings still pegs a Waystar sale to be the most likely show outcome at 2:1 odds, implying a 33% probability. (Following this season’s sixth episode, the book tapped Roman as the most likely successor at 5:2 odds, followed by Kendall and Shiv, but Roman’s erratic behavior at his father’s funeral “disqualified” him from the role in the eye of shareholders, as Creutz says, explaining the youngest Roy son is “kind of a child” who is “destructive” when he has power).
CRUCIAL QUOTES
Forbes also asked dozens of billionaires who should succeed the Roy patriarch, but most seemed uninterested, saying they do not watch the show.
- Mark Cuban, the owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, told Forbes he’s “tried to get into the show” but hasn’t watched past the third episode of the fourth and final season, the episode where the Roy patriarch dies; “Every time I think I should watch more… I realize I should try to spend more time with my teenagers,” he laments.
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon hasn’t watched Succession at all, according to the bank’s chief spokesperson Joseph Evangelisti, who nevertheless chimed in to say he believes cousin Hirsch should become Waystar’s chief (perhaps the lack of bad PR for the bumbling “Cousin Greg” factored in there).
A representative for CNN founder Ted Turner, the closest real-life example to Roy’s left-leaning rival Nan Pierce, said the billionaire is not familiar with Succession, (as did fellow media mogul David Geffen and Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney), and money manager Ken Fisher told Forbes he doesn’t “really watch TV.”
CONTRA
Waystar’s stock may have dropped 20% in the first trading session after Logan’s death, but Bahnsen offers a tidbit of investing advice for real-life investors in companies whose valuation is largely derived from an outsized influence from its top executive. “A CEO would never, ever, ever be a primary factor in owning a company, so it would never be a factor in selling when a CEO died,” Bahnsen said, alluding to the 2011 death of Apple co-founder and long-time CEO Steve Jobs (Apple shares are up more than 1,000% since Jobs’ death).
KEY BACKGROUND
Succession, which first aired in 2018 and won the Emmy for best drama series for its second and third seasons, offers an often satirical look at the Roy family’s extreme wealth and the flawed relationships among the rich relatives. A vast conglomerate including a conservative cable news network, theme parks, real estate and newspapers, Waystar compares favorably to the empire overseen by the Murdoch. The 92-year-old Fox New and Wall Street Journal owner didn’t respond to Forbes’ inquiry, but Murdoch told Semafor earlier this year he’s never seen Succession. Yet, Murdoch reportedly required his fourth wife to agree to not feed story ideas to writers of the show as part of their 2022 divorce.
FORBES VALUATION
Forbes estimated Logan Roy to be worth about $18 billion in October 2021, ahead of the show’s third season. With an $18 billion fortune, Roy would have beenthe 89th-richest person in the world, per Forbes’ real-time calculations–just topping Murdoch’s net worth. A majority of Roy’s wealth was thanks to his 36% stake in Waystar, then worth $16.4 billion. But that stake may be worth far more should the Roy-negotiated sale to Swedish technology company GoJo, led by eccentric billionaire Lukas Matsson, pass through U.S. regulators (against the wishes of Kendall and Roman). The proposed deal valued Waystar at $192 per share, a nearly 40% premium to Waystar’s $140 share price two years ago.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Succession’s final episode will air Sunday at 9 p.m. ET on HBO and its Max streaming service.
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