US Election 2024: Here’s what you need to know if you’re in Australia

US Election

As the US heads to the polls, Australians are watching closely. Here’s your guide on when to check results, the states to watch, and what early indicators to look out for on Election Day 2024.
TOPSHOT – People cast their in-person early ballot for the 2024 general US election at the Northwest Activities Center on October 29, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP) (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
Key Takeaways
  • Results will start rolling in from midday AEDT, with early updates expected from North Carolina and Georgia.
  • Polls in crucial battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Arizona close by early afternoon AEDT, but some results could take days.
  • Polling averages show a tight national race, with Harris and Trump nearly tied in multiple swing states.
  • Pennsylvania’s large number of mail-in ballots may delay its results, repeating the extended count seen in 2020.
  • Harris leads among Latino voters, but support has fluctuated following recent controversies at Trump rallies.
  • Recounts could be triggered in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia if results fall within 0.5%.
  • Both candidates have focused heavily on energy policies, with Trump pledging an increase in fracking and drilling.
What time do the polls close in Australia?

Australians keen to keep an eye on the outcome can start tuning in from 10 am AEDT on Wednesday, November 6, when the first polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Key battlegrounds like Georgia and North Carolina close at 11 am and 11:30 am AEDT, with the most critical updates expected from midday onward. Final poll closures on the West Coast, including states like California and Nevada, happen at 2 pm AEDT.

Big Number

270 – the minimum number of electoral votes needed to win the US election. Pennsylvania’s 19 votes alone could prove decisive if the race is close.

What are the polls saying?

Polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Harris and Trump, with both candidates holding narrow leads in different key states. Nationally, Harris has a slight edge, leading by a single point in the latest averages. However, swing states tell a more complex story. Harris holds narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump has a slight advantage in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada

Understanding Swing States

Swing states are crucial in US elections due to their potential to vote for either major party.

In 2024, key swing states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states collectively hold 93 electoral votes, playing a pivotal role in determining the election outcome.

Tangent

Watch for recount triggers. In states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, a margin of 0.5% or less will mandate a recount, potentially stretching the timeline even further in a close election​.

What to watch for

Both candidates have focused final rallies in Pennsylvania, emphasising their core messages. Trump’s recent rally saw backlash over controversial comments from speakers, particularly among Latino voters, who could influence outcomes in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Harris has reinforced a message of unity, hoping to mobilise urban and Latino votes on Election Day​.

When will we know who won the US election?

Australians should expect things to get interesting around midday AEDT on Wednesday, November 6, as results begin to roll in from key states. By around 3 pm AEDT, there should be a clearer picture, but a definitive result may not be guaranteed on the day itself.

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Head of News & Life
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